breakout

Karen Templeton asks if there are any new breakout novelists:

So I got to thinking, okay — so who among us will some little schlep ten or twenty years from now think that about? Who are the stars of tomorrow?

Alas, I came up empty.

See, all of big names now got their start 20-25 years ago, right? And about ten years into their careers, they broke out and never looked back. In other works, when I started, about ten years ago, many of the today’s stars were already stars, or close to it. So by rights, there should be a new crop of emerging superstars today who started about ten years ago. But. . .are there?

Think about it. Who can you name of the “next” generation, for lack of a better word, with the starpower, or potential starpower, of a Nora, an SEP, a Cruisie? I can’t think of anyone, although if you can, feel free. But it seems to me we have an awful lot of flashes-in-the-pan these days, talented writers who, for whatever reason, either don’t rise all the way to the top or who don’t stay there.

I think there are several factors that enter into why this hypothesis needs a little work. First off, as far as I know, Jennifer Crusie started publishing in the early-to-mid-nineties (and so did Lisa Gardner, another huge star), so it is more like 10 years than 25. Also, it’s tough to tell if the people who are the big stars right now, the Carly Phillipses and the Mary Janice Davidsons and the like, will continue to be the lasting stars that Nora Roberts is. They ARE just getting started. Check back in ten to twenty five years.

Further, the writers she mentioned are all writers of contemporary romance (and mostly romantic comedy — except Nora — since she leaves out the big historical stars like Julia Quinn and Lisa Kleypas as well as romantic suspense writers like Suzanne Brockmann), as the writers who WERE ALREADY big stars while these new people were coming up in the eighties and nineties were writers of historical romance: the Virginia Henleys and Johanna Lindseys and the like. And what’s big now? Paranormal romance. The people you have seen really break out and become meteoric hits in the past few years (and again, I’m invoking Mary Janice Davidson, but also Sherrilyn Kenyon) have been paranormal romance writers.

You hear a lot that it’s very difficult to break into the more established genres like romantic comedy (unless it’s chick lit), historical, and romantic suspense, because the big names there have been big names for decades, but at the same time, you’ve got someone like romantic suspense author Allison Brennan, whose first book THE PREY debuted at #88 on USA Today this week. So it is possible.

And then you also have people that have been writing for a while, and have yet to stumble upon whatever it is that’s going to rocket them up. Did we look at Janet Evanovich’s category romances and say, “Oh yeah, well, Stephanie Plum? I totally see it happening?” Was the star power obvious? Right now, you see writers who have been mid list or category workhorses for years suddenly breaking out and doing really exciting things (Vicki Lewis Thompson, Susan Squires).

We do have a lot of flashes in the pan nowadays, but then again, I think we did then, too. It hasnt’ changed. We have stars and starlets and pretenders now just as we did in the eighties. We’ve just forgotten about them, and only remembered the stars. (Same as in any other industry, by the way.) I’ve hung out with older authors who were, shall we say, retired. And I think “staying at the top” requires a bit of time to make sure they’re actually staying.

There are definitely people I think are going places, and are just about to hit the big time and are going to be huge stars in a year or two, or a book or two, or a series or two. But it’s tough to forecast these things. You can look back at Nora’s early work now and say, “Wow, it was so obvious.” But there were other people who were doing really exciting things at that time as well, and are not now Nora Roberts, and maybe aren’t even writing anymore. So what happened to them? Could you really tell back then that it was going to be Nora?

Sometimes I watch old movies where huge moviestars have bit parts, and I think to myself, “Yeah, they were bound to be a star.” And sometimes I watch them and go, “Woah, that can’t be so-and-so, can it? They sure cleaned up nice.”

I wish I had a formula for prediciting bestsellers. I’d make sure I hit all the high points. Because, of course, I think I’m going to be a big star of tomorrow. 😉

Which means I must get back to the books today.